BundesligaMatchday 7
Mainz vs Werder Bremen: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%60%O2.563%59%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Werder Bremen0:2MainzW
- Mainz1:1Werder BremenD
- Werder Bremen1:0MainzL
- Mainz1:2Werder BremenL
- Mainz0:1Werder BremenL
Mainz's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.9over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.1 : 1.2total 3.3Attack/defence1.8 : 1.3total 3.0
Mainz : Werder BremenMost likely scores
Market1-110%2-110%1-07%2-08%3-17%1-2—2-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-08%2-08%3-1—1-27%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-07%1-08%2-02-08%2-08%3-13-17%3-1—1-21-2—1-27%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84%81% | 81% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 80%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63%59% | 59% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%60% | 60% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59%64% | 64% |
| 1 – Mainz win | 58%50% · Elo 48% | 50%· Elo 48% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 42%51% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41%36% | 36% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%40% | 40% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37%41% | 41% |
| X – draw | 22%24% · Elo 27% | 24%· Elo 27% |
| 2 – Werder Bremen win | 20%27% · Elo 25% | 27%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Mainz attack vs Werder Bremen defenceattack1503defence1495+8 pts to the attack
Werder Bremen attack vs Mainz defenceattack1452defence1509−57 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 10.2 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.568%61%
9.556%48%
10.545%36%
11.534%28%
Each team on its own
Mainzwe expect 6.7, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 64%
Werder Bremenwe expect 4.1, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 18.9 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.551%59%
19.543%53%
20.536%46%
21.529%39%
Each team on its own
Mainzwe expect 9.1, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 43%
Werder Bremenwe expect 9.7, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 62%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 38%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.560%66%
3.538%46%
4.521%30%
5.510%16%
Each team on its own
Mainzwe expect 1.4, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Werder Bremenwe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Werder Bremen score a lot late on: 11 of 26 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Mainz: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Werder Bremen: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:10 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
Mainz are the favourites. Chances: Mainz win 58%, draw 22%, Werder Bremen win 20%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
Expected goals: 3.3 (Mainz 2.1, Werder Bremen 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 63%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
The chance that both teams score is 61%.
When is Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 24 October 2026, 14:30 (UK time).