Serie AMatchday 8
Inter vs Fiorentina: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%60%O2.567%69%|exp. goals 2.5 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Fiorentina1:1InterD
- Inter3:0FiorentinaW
- Inter2:1FiorentinaW
- Fiorentina3:0InterL
- Fiorentina0:1InterW
Inter's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.7league 8.9over 8.5: 50%Expected corners: 8.7 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.6under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.5 : 1.0total 3.5Attack/defence2.5 : 1.1total 3.6
Inter : FiorentinaMost likely scores
Market2-010%2-110%1-18%3-08%3-18%1-0—Attack/defence2-09%2-19%1-18%3-08%3-18%1-07%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-010%2-09%2-12-110%2-19%1-11-18%1-18%3-03-08%3-08%3-13-18%3-18%1-01-0—1-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 87%87% | 87% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86%87% | 87% |
| 12 – no draw | 83%83% | 83% |
| 1 – Inter win | 70%69% · Elo 69% | 69%· Elo 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67%69% | 69% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%60% | 60% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55%52% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%40% | 40% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33%31% | 31% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 30%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 17%17% · Elo 19% | 17%· Elo 19% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14%13% | 13% |
| 2 – Fiorentina win | 13%14% · Elo 11% | 14%· Elo 11% |
Attack vs defence
Inter attack vs Fiorentina defenceattack1755defence1459+296 pts to the attack
Fiorentina attack vs Inter defenceattack1499defence1595−96 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.565%57%
8.553%41%
9.540%28%
10.529%19%
Each team on its own
Interwe expect 6.1, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 70%
Fiorentinawe expect 3.5, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 73%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 27%
We expect 20.4 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.533%51%
23.527%45%
24.522%37%
25.517%33%
Each team on its own
Interwe expect 10.0, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 31%
Fiorentinawe expect 10.1, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 33%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.562%62%
3.540%41%
4.523%28%
5.511%15%
Each team on its own
Interwe expect 1.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Fiorentinawe expect 1.8, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 53%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Inter score 2.7 goals per game
- Inter: unbeaten in 16 matches
- Inter: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Fiorentina: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18:8 | 16 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7:14 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Inter vs Fiorentina?
Inter are the favourites. Chances: Inter win 70%, draw 17%, Fiorentina win 13%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Expected goals: 3.5 (Inter 2.5, Fiorentina 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Fiorentina?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Inter vs Fiorentina?
The Serie A match kicks off 25 October 2026, 11:30 (UK time).