Serie AMatchday 8
Napoli vs Roma: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%55%O2.550%50%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Napoli2:2RomaD
- Roma0:1NapoliW
- Roma1:1NapoliD
- Napoli1:0RomaW
- Napoli2:2RomaD
Napoli's record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.8league 8.9over 8.5: 51%Expected corners: 8.8 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.6under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.4total 2.7Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.7
Napoli : RomaMost likely scores
Market1-113%0-19%1-29%1-0—2-18%0-08%Attack/defence1-113%0-19%1-28%1-09%2-18%0-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-19%0-19%1-21-29%1-28%1-01-0—1-09%2-12-18%2-18%0-00-08%0-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%72% | 72% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 68%63% | 63% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 60%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55%55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%50% | 50% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 45%45% | 45% |
| 2 – Roma win | 40%36% · Elo 37% | 36%· Elo 37% |
| 1 – Napoli win | 32%37% · Elo 33% | 37%· Elo 33% |
| X – draw | 28%27% · Elo 30% | 27%· Elo 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%28% | 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Napoli attack vs Roma defenceattack1568defence1617−49 pts to the attack
Roma attack vs Napoli defenceattack1627defence1591+36 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.558%57%
8.545%41%
9.533%28%
10.523%19%
Each team on its own
Napoliwe expect 4.1, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Romawe expect 4.3, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 60%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 76%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 24%
We expect 20.0 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.530%51%
23.524%45%
24.519%37%
25.515%33%
Each team on its own
Napoliwe expect 9.2, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 23%
Romawe expect 10.4, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 35%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.568%62%
3.546%41%
4.528%28%
5.515%15%
Each team on its own
Napoliwe expect 2.0, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 58%
Romawe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Roma score 2.5 goals per game
- Roma concede only 0.5 goals per game
- Roma: unbeaten in 13 matches
- Roma: 26 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 20 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Napoli: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Roma: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14:3 | 14 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Napoli vs Roma?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Napoli win 32%, draw 28%, Roma win 40%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Roma?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Napoli 1.3, Roma 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Roma?
The chance that both teams score is 55%.
When is Napoli vs Roma?
The Serie A match kicks off 24 October 2026, 17:00 (UK time).