Serie AMatchday 9
Roma vs Cagliari: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 13d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%O2.547%53%|exp. goals 1.9 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Roma2:0CagliariW
- Cagliari1:0RomaL
- Roma1:0CagliariW
- Cagliari0:0RomaD
- Roma4:0CagliariW
Roma's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 8.9over 8.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.6under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.8 : 0.8total 2.5Attack/defence1.9 : 0.9total 2.8
Roma : CagliariMost likely scores
Model1-014%2-013%1-111%2-110%0-08%3-0—Attack/defence1-011%2-011%1-111%2-110%0-06%3-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-01-014%1-011%2-02-013%2-011%1-11-111%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%0-00-08%0-06%3-03-0—3-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 85%83% | 83% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%78% | 78% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75%69% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%77% | 77% |
| 1 – Roma win | 62%61% · Elo 66% | 61%· Elo 66% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%47% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%53% | 53% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 38%39% | 39% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%23% | 23% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 23%22% · Elo 21% | 22%· Elo 21% |
| 2 – Cagliari win | 15%17% · Elo 13% | 17%· Elo 13% |
Attack vs defence
Roma attack vs Cagliari defenceattack1627defence1488+139 pts to the attack
Cagliari attack vs Roma defenceattack1436defence1617−181 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 8.8 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.564%57%
8.551%41%
9.538%28%
10.527%19%
Each team on its own
Romawe expect 5.8, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 66%
Cagliariwe expect 3.5, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 46%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 71%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 29%
We expect 20.8 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.536%51%
23.529%45%
24.524%37%
25.519%33%
Each team on its own
Romawe expect 10.4, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 36%
Cagliariwe expect 10.1, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 32%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 4.0 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.576%62%
3.557%41%
4.538%28%
5.522%15%
Each team on its own
Romawe expect 2.3, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 65%
Cagliariwe expect 1.8, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Roma score 2.5 goals per game
- Roma concede only 0.5 goals per game
- Roma: unbeaten in 13 matches
- Cagliari: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Roma: 26 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 20 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Roma played 3 days ago
- Cagliari: 3 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14:3 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Roma vs Cagliari?
Roma are the favourites. Chances: Roma win 62%, draw 23%, Cagliari win 15%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Roma vs Cagliari?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Roma 1.8, Cagliari 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-0.
When is Roma vs Cagliari?
The Serie A match kicks off 27 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).