USL ChampionshipMatchday 126
Charleston vs Louisville City: prediction, tips and stats
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1.6:1.3Pre-match
Our tips
Tip in 1d 19hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS57%57%O2.552%53%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Charleston0:2Louisville CityL
- Louisville City0:2CharlestonW
- Louisville City4:1CharlestonL
- Charleston1:2Louisville CityL
- Louisville City3:1CharlestonL
Charleston's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.7league 9.2under 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellows
4.0league 4.2under 4.5: 64%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.Referee
no referee dataPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.3total 2.8Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.8
Charleston : Louisville CityMost likely scores
Market1-113%2-19%1-09%1-28%2-0—0-1—0-07%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-27%2-07%0-17%0-0—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-09%1-09%1-21-28%1-27%2-02-0—2-07%0-10-1—0-17%0-00-07%0-0—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70%69% | 69% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 68%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 59%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52%53% | 53% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%43% | 43% |
| 1 – Charleston win | 41%44% · Elo 41% | 44%· Elo 41% |
| 2 – Louisville City win | 32%30% · Elo 32% | 30%· Elo 32% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 27%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Charleston attack vs Louisville City defenceattack1625defence1566+59 pts to the attack
Louisville City attack vs Charleston defenceattack1634defence1570+64 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 7.4 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.561%61%
7.546%51%
8.533%36%
9.522%30%
Each team on its own
Charlestonwe expect 3.9, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 35%
Louisville Citywe expect 3.2, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 73%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 27%
We expect 20.4 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.533%56%
23.527%49%
24.522%44%
25.517%40%
Each team on its own
Charlestonwe expect 9.4, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 25%
Louisville Citywe expect 10.7, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 39%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 64%close to the league averageunderover 36%
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.558%55%
3.536%38%
4.519%21%
5.59%14%
Each team on its own
Charlestonwe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Louisville Citywe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Charleston matches average 11.3 corners (league 9.2) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Louisville City: unbeaten in 8 league matches
- Charleston: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Louisville City: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Charleston | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 56:35 | 53 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 51:43 | 47 |
Frequently asked questions
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Charleston win 41%, draw 27%, Louisville City win 32%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
Expected goals: 2.8 (Charleston 1.5, Louisville City 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1.
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
The USL Championship match kicks off 14 November 2026, 23:00 (UK time).
See also
- USL Championship: table, fixtures and results
- USL Championship stats: over/under, BTTS, corners and cards
- All matches that day
- The clubs' other match this season: Louisville City 0-2 Charleston ()
- The clubs' other match this season: Charleston 0-2 Louisville City ()
- Charleston: Elo rating
- Louisville City: Elo rating