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WTA 125 CuritibaFinalclaybest of three sets

Tubello vs Grabher 2:1: result and our tips

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Alice TubelloWTA #152Elo 1633clay 1658
2:1final3:6 7:6(5) 7:6(2)
Julia GrabherWTA #112Elo 1771clay 1796

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 17.5Won75%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Grabher: 13 matches in a row over 17.5 games; Over 17.5 games in recent matches: Tubello 14 of 20, Grabher 17 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Won36%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Tubello 9 of 20, Grabher 9 of 20 (tour average 31%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alice Tubello45%
Julia Grabher55%

Elo: A. Tubello 31% · J. Grabher 69%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Tubello28%
2:1 A. Tubello18%
2:1 J. Grabher21%
2:0 J. Grabher33%

First set

Alice Tubello49%
Julia Grabher51%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.566%34%59%
19.559%42%52%
20.552%48%45%
21.548%52%41%
22.543%57%37%
23.539%61%33%
24.536%64%31%

Sample: 1,470 matches

Games handicap

J. Grabher −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 35 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Alice TubelloJulia Grabher
2Aces2
5Double faults4
70%First serves in74%
53%First-serve points won55%
50%Second-serve points won44%
6/13Break points converted8/20
9/17Service games held10/16
52%Service points won52%
48%Return points won48%
128Total points won129

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. TubelloTourJ. Grabher
Service points won55%56%56%
Return points won46%44%43%
Service games held60%63%64%
Breaks of serve41%37%35%
Aces per service game0.080.16
Double faults per game0.240.47
Sets with a tie-break5%14%
Tie-breaks won1/37/15
Wins in straight sets67%58%
Matches in the sample2549

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alice Tubello

Julia Grabher

Elo over the last year

Alice TubelloJulia Grabher

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. TubelloJ. Grabher
Hard court0–20%5–1033%
Clay12–1055%21–1264%
Grass0–10%0–10%

Head to head

A. Tubello 0–1 J. Grabher

  • 24/09/26Winner: J. Grabher6:3 3:6 4:6

Road through the tournament

Alice Tubello

Julia Grabher

Upcoming matches

See also