Who will win New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

It is an evenly matched game. Chances: New Mexico United win 31%, draw 28%, Sacramento Republic win 41%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.

How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

Expected goals: 2.6 (New Mexico United 1.2, Sacramento Republic 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Will both teams score in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

The chance that both teams score is 53%.

When is New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

The USL Championship match kicks off 16 November 2026, 00:00 (UK time).

USL ChampionshipMatchday 126

New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic: prediction, tips and stats

Monday 16 November · 00:00

New Mexico United

3-1 0-1 1-0 2-0 4-0

1.2:1.2Pre-match

Sacramento Republic

2-1 1-0 3-2 1-0 1-1

Our tips

Tip in 20h 19m

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2Elo

New Mexico United155931%39%Draw28%28%Sacramento Republic159341%33%

Goalsattack/defence

BTTS53%50%O2.548%44%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.2

H2Hlast 5 meetings

27/09/202627/09/26New Mexico United2:3Sacramento RepublicL
21/06/202621/06/26Sacramento Republic0:1New Mexico UnitedW
31/08/202531/08/25New Mexico United0:2Sacramento RepublicL
09/03/202509/03/25Sacramento Republic2:1New Mexico UnitedL
30/09/202430/09/24Sacramento Republic4:0New Mexico UnitedL

New Mexico United's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses3.0 goals per match

Cornersleague cornersin line with the league

9.4league 9.2under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.

Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league

4.1league 4.2under 4.5: 61%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.

Referee

no referee data

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.2 : 1.4total 2.6Attack/defence1.2 : 1.2total 2.4

New Mexico United : Sacramento Republic

Most likely scores

Market1-113%0-110%1-08%0-09%1-29%2-1—Attack/defence1-113%0-111%1-010%0-09%1-28%2-18%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-110%0-111%1-01-08%1-010%0-00-09%0-09%1-21-29%1-28%2-12-1—2-18%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	74%70%	70%
Under 3.5 goals	74%77%	77%
12 – no draw	72%72%	72%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	69%65%	65%
1X – home team avoid defeat	59%63%	63%
Both teams to score: yes	53%50%	50%
Under 2.5 goals	52%56%	56%
Over 2.5 goals	48%44%	44%
Both teams to score: no	47%50%	50%
2 – Sacramento Republic win	41%37% · Elo 33%	37%· Elo 33%
1 – New Mexico United win	31%35% · Elo 39%	35%· Elo 39%
X – draw	28%28% · Elo 28%	28%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals	26%30%	30%
Over 3.5 goals	26%23%	23%

Attack vs defence

New Mexico United attack vs Sacramento Republic defenceattack1544defence1638−94 pts to the attack

Sacramento Republic attack vs New Mexico United defenceattack1518defence1459+59 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Over 7.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over

We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

6.572%62%

7.560%51%

8.547%37%

9.534%29%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New Mexico Unitedwe expect 4.4, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 45%

Sacramento Republicwe expect 4.2, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 58%

Foulsleague average

Over 23.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over

We expect 24.8 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

22.563%56%

23.557%49%

24.550%45%

25.543%40%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New Mexico Unitedwe expect 12.5, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 57%

Sacramento Republicwe expect 12.5, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 58%

Offsidesleague average

Over 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 50%over

We expect 3.7 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.571%56%

3.551%39%

4.532%21%

5.518%14%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New Mexico Unitedwe expect 2.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 64%

Sacramento Republicwe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 46%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Streaks before the match

Sacramento Republic15 matches unbeatenaway: 6Went on 79%League 56%Model 69%Record 21

All streaks

Worth knowing before kick-off

Sacramento Republic: 4 wins in a row in the league
Sacramento Republic: 24 pts in the last 10 league matches, bookmakers expected about 18 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
New Mexico United: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Sacramento Republic: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

League form