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Challenger CharlottesvilleChallenger 75Finalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Kozlov vs Mayo: prediction and tips

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Stefan KozlovATP #271Elo 1669hard 1658
-:-
Aidan MayoATP #285Elo 1783hard 1778

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: Mayo60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Mayo: 5 matches in a row winning the first set

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Mayo63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 63%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Mayo won 8 of the last 10 matches; Mayo: 5 wins in a row

  • Tie-break in Match: No67%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 67%

    Kozlov: 8 matches in a row without a tie-break

Long shot
1st Set Winner: Kozlov40%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Kozlov: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Stefan Kozlov38%
Aidan Mayo62%

Elo: S. Kozlov 33% · A. Mayo 67%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Kozlov22%
2:1 S. Kozlov16%
2:1 A. Mayo22%
2:0 A. Mayo40%

First set

Stefan Kozlov41%
Aidan Mayo59%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%71%
19.566%34%62%
20.559%41%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.546%54%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.539%61%35%

Sample: 6,022 matches

Games handicap

A. Mayo −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes34%

tour average 32%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. KozlovTourA. Mayo
Service points won61%62%66%
Return points won42%38%39%
Service games held74%76%83%
Breaks of serve32%24%24%
Aces per service game0.250.58
Double faults per game0.300.35
Sets with a tie-break10%22%
Tie-breaks won6/1512/30
Wins in straight sets54%71%
Matches in the sample6157

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Stefan Kozlov

Aidan Mayo

Elo over the last year

Stefan KozlovAidan Mayo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. KozlovA. Mayo
Hard court25–1957%31–1863%
Clay7–654%4–357%
Grass3–175%0–10%

Head to head

S. Kozlov 2–0 A. Mayo

  • 12/08/26Winner: S. Kozlov6:3 5:7 6:2
  • 05/07/26Winner: S. Kozlov7:6 5:7 6:3

Road through the tournament

Stefan Kozlov

Aidan Mayo

Upcoming matches

See also