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Challenger CharlottesvilleChallenger 75Semifinalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Mayo vs Andrade: prediction and tips

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Aidan MayoATP #285Elo 1783hard 1778
-:-
Andres AndradeATP #229Elo 1799hard 1803

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: Mayo61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Mayo: 5 matches in a row winning the first set

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Mayo66%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 66%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Mayo won 8 of the last 10 matches; Mayo: 5 wins in a row

  • Total Games: Under 23.560%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Mayo: 7 matches in a row under 23.5 games; Under 23.5 games in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: Yes34%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A tie-break in 3 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Aidan Mayo66%
Andres Andrade35%

Elo: A. Mayo 47% · A. Andrade 54%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Mayo43%
2:1 A. Mayo22%
2:1 A. Andrade15%
2:0 A. Andrade20%

First set

Aidan Mayo61%
Andres Andrade39%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%71%
19.566%34%62%
20.558%42%54%
21.553%47%49%
22.546%54%42%
23.540%60%37%
24.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,616 matches

Games handicap

A. Mayo −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes34%

tour average 32%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. MayoTourA. Andrade
Service points won66%62%60%
Return points won39%38%41%
Service games held83%76%73%
Breaks of serve24%24%30%
Aces per service game0.580.27
Double faults per game0.350.34
Sets with a tie-break22%10%
Tie-breaks won12/3010/16
Wins in straight sets74%68%
Matches in the sample5668

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Aidan Mayo

Andres Andrade

Elo over the last year

Aidan MayoAndres Andrade

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. MayoA. Andrade
Hard court30–1863%30–1863%
Clay4–357%10–856%
Grass0–10%0–20%

Head to head

A. Mayo 2–2 A. Andrade

  • 29/08/26Winner: A. Mayo6:3 7:6
  • 23/04/26Winner: A. Andrade6:7 4:6
  • 16/03/26Winner: A. Andrade4:6 6:7
  • 30/06/25Winner: A. Mayo6:1 6:3

Road through the tournament

Aidan Mayo

Andres Andrade

Upcoming matches