Berrettini vs Alcaraz: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 10h 42mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: M. Berrettini 9% · C. Alcaraz 91%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.4
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 82% | 18% | 83% |
| 18.5 | 74% | 27% | 75% |
| 19.5 | 64% | 36% | 67% |
| 20.5 | 53% | 47% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 45% | 55% | 53% |
| 22.5 | 39% | 61% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 31% | 69% | 39% |
Sample: 1,827 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Berrettini | Tour | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 68% | 62% | 67% |
| Return points won | 34% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 86% | 76% | 87% |
| Breaks of serve | 16% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.70 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.16 | 0.19 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 25% | 23% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 18/31 | 18/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 76% | |
| Matches in the sample | 47 | 48 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Matteo Berrettini
- 04/11/26WUgo Humbert#38ATP Paris · R327:6 7:5
- 03/11/26WBrandon Nakashima#18ATP Paris · R646:4 3:6 7:6
- 30/10/26LAlex de Minaur#9ATP Vienna · QF6:7 2:6
- 29/10/26WFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Vienna · R165:2
- 26/10/26WTomás Martín Etcheverry#31ATP Vienna · R326:3 6:4
- 20/10/26LKyrian Jacquet#80ATP Lyon · R326:7 5:7
- 09/10/26LBrandon Nakashima#18ATP Shanghai · R646:7 5:7
- 07/10/26WAleksandar Kovacevic#84ATP Shanghai · R1286:7 6:1 6:4
- 03/10/26LAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#56ATP Tokyo · R166:7 1:6
- 01/10/26WAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#17ATP Tokyo · R321:6 7:6 6:4
Carlos Alcaraz
- 04/11/26WAlex Michelsen#35ATP Paris · R327:6 6:3
- 01/11/26WAlex de Minaur#9ATP Vienna · F6:1 6:4
- 31/10/26WDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Vienna · SF6:4 7:6
- 30/10/26WTommy Paul#14ATP Vienna · QF6:4 7:6
- 29/10/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#87ATP Vienna · R166:1 7:6
- 27/10/26WKaren Khachanov#25ATP Vienna · R326:4 7:6
- 12/10/26LZizou Bergs#40ATP Shanghai · R325:7 6:7
- 10/10/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#54ATP Shanghai · R646:3 6:3
- 06/10/26WJiří Lehečka#15ATP Tokyo · F7:6 6:4
- 05/10/26WJaume Munar#65ATP Tokyo · SF5:7 6:3 6:1
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Berrettini | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 12–1055% | 37–588% |
| Clay | 12–1055% | 5–183% |
| Grass | 2–167% | 0–0 |
Head to head
M. Berrettini 1–3 C. Alcaraz
- 10/07/23Winner: C. Alcaraz6:3 3:6 3:6 3:6
- 19/02/22Winner: C. Alcaraz2:6 6:2 2:6
- 21/01/22Winner: M. Berrettini6:2 7:6 4:6 2:6 7:6
- 29/10/21Winner: C. Alcaraz1:6 7:6 6:7
Road through the tournament
Matteo Berrettini
- 03/11/26WBrandon Nakashima#18ATP Paris · R646:4 3:6 7:6
- 04/11/26WUgo Humbert#38ATP Paris · R327:6 7:5
Carlos Alcaraz
- 04/11/26WAlex Michelsen#35ATP Paris · R327:6 6:3
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