Challenger MatsuyamaChallenger 75Round of 32hardbest of three sets
Samrej vs Shimizu: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Kasidit Samrej32%
Yuta Shimizu68%
Elo: K. Samrej 45% · Y. Shimizu 55%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 K. Samrej18%
2:1 K. Samrej14%
2:1 Y. Shimizu22%
2:0 Y. Shimizu45%
First set
Kasidit Samrej37%
Yuta Shimizu63%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 54%market (no margin): 51%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 68% | 32% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 54% | 46% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 48% | 52% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 58% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 35% | 65% | 32% |
Sample: 5,223 matches
Games handicap
Y. Shimizu −3.549%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes38%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| K. Samrej | Tour | Y. Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 36% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 80% | 76% | 79% |
| Breaks of serve | 21% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.52 | 0.39 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.38 | 0.23 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 19% | 20% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 9/16 | 15/25 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 67% | |
| Matches in the sample | 37 | 54 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Kasidit Samrej
- 06/11/26LColeman Wong#85Challenger Taipei · QF5:7 2:6
- 05/11/26WCarl Emil Overbeck#301Challenger Taipei · R166:4 6:3
- 03/11/26WJames McCabe#256Challenger Taipei · R326:3 7:5
- 02/11/26LOmar Jasika#329Challenger Taipei · Q26:7 6:7
- 01/11/26WKoki Matsuda#457Challenger Taipei · Q16:3 7:6
- 26/10/26LRei Sakamoto#123Challenger Seoul · R323:6 4:6
- 21/10/26LColeman Wong#85Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R166:4 3:6 4:6
- 20/10/26WRio Noguchi#219Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R322:6 6:1 7:6
- 19/10/26LYaroslav Demin#358Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q24:6 2:6
- 18/10/26WNaoya Honda#584Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q14:6 6:3 7:5
Yuta Shimizu
- 07/11/26LJan Kumstat#194Challenger Taipei · SF5:7 4:6
- 06/11/26WOmar Jasika#329Challenger Taipei · QF6:2 6:2
- 04/11/26WAugust Holmgren#267Challenger Taipei · R167:6 6:4
- 03/11/26WStefanos Sakellaridis#129Challenger Taipei · R327:5 6:4
- 02/11/26WEvan Zhu#467Challenger Taipei · Q26:1 6:3
- 01/11/26WDimitris Sakellaridis#541Challenger Taipei · Q16:2 6:2
- 28/10/26LYu Hsiou Hsu#304Challenger Ningbo · R165:7 6:3 4:6
- 26/10/26WMili Poljicak#276Challenger Ningbo · R326:7 6:3 6:4
- 18/10/26LMax Purcell#618Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q13:6 1:6
- 01/10/26LBernard Tomic#181Challenger Jingshan · R167:5 2:6 6:7
Elo over the last year
Kasidit SamrejYuta Shimizu
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| K. Samrej | Y. Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 20–1754% | 28–2355% |
| Clay | 0–0 | 2–167% |
Head to head
K. Samrej 0–1 Y. Shimizu
- 09/09/26Winner: Y. Shimizu4:6 4:6
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