ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Berrettini vs Alcaraz: prediction and tips
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Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Matteo Berrettini15%
Carlos Alcaraz86%
Elo: M. Berrettini 9% · C. Alcaraz 91%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 M. Berrettini9%
2:1 M. Berrettini7%
2:1 C. Alcaraz20%
2:0 C. Alcaraz65%
First set
Matteo Berrettini23%
Carlos Alcaraz77%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes27%
no73%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 48%market (no margin): 52%
The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.9
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 76% | 24% | 76% |
| 19.5 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| 20.5 | 57% | 43% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 48% | 52% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 42% | 58% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 34% | 66% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 30% | 70% | 38% |
Sample: 2,163 matches
Games handicap
C. Alcaraz −4.553%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes40%
tour average 38%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Berrettini | Tour | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 68% | 62% | 67% |
| Return points won | 34% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 86% | 76% | 87% |
| Breaks of serve | 16% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.70 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.16 | 0.19 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 25% | 23% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 18/31 | 18/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 76% | |
| Matches in the sample | 47 | 48 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Matteo Berrettini
- 04/11/26WUgo Humbert#38ATP Paris · R327:6 7:5
- 03/11/26WBrandon Nakashima#18ATP Paris · R646:4 3:6 7:6
- 30/10/26LAlex de Minaur#9ATP Vienna · QF6:7 2:6
- 29/10/26WFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Vienna · R165:2
- 26/10/26WTomás Martín Etcheverry#31ATP Vienna · R326:3 6:4
- 20/10/26LKyrian Jacquet#80ATP Lyon · R326:7 5:7
- 09/10/26LBrandon Nakashima#18ATP Shanghai · R646:7 5:7
- 07/10/26WAleksandar Kovacevic#84ATP Shanghai · R1286:7 6:1 6:4
- 03/10/26LAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#56ATP Tokyo · R166:7 1:6
- 01/10/26WAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#17ATP Tokyo · R321:6 7:6 6:4
Carlos Alcaraz
- 04/11/26WAlex Michelsen#35ATP Paris · R327:6 6:3
- 01/11/26WAlex de Minaur#9ATP Vienna · F6:1 6:4
- 31/10/26WDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Vienna · SF6:4 7:6
- 30/10/26WTommy Paul#14ATP Vienna · QF6:4 7:6
- 29/10/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#87ATP Vienna · R166:1 7:6
- 27/10/26WKaren Khachanov#25ATP Vienna · R326:4 7:6
- 12/10/26LZizou Bergs#40ATP Shanghai · R325:7 6:7
- 10/10/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#54ATP Shanghai · R646:3 6:3
- 06/10/26WJiří Lehečka#15ATP Tokyo · F7:6 6:4
- 05/10/26WJaume Munar#65ATP Tokyo · SF5:7 6:3 6:1
Elo over the last year
Matteo BerrettiniCarlos Alcaraz
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Berrettini | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 11–1052% | 37–588% |
| Clay | 12–1055% | 5–183% |
| Grass | 2–167% | 0–0 |
Head to head
M. Berrettini 1–3 C. Alcaraz
- 10/07/23Winner: C. Alcaraz6:3 3:6 3:6 3:6
- 19/02/22Winner: C. Alcaraz2:6 6:2 2:6
- 21/01/22Winner: M. Berrettini6:2 7:6 4:6 2:6 7:6
- 29/10/21Winner: C. Alcaraz1:6 7:6 6:7
Road through the tournament
Matteo Berrettini
- 03/11/26WBrandon Nakashima#18ATP Paris · R646:4 3:6 7:6
- 04/11/26WUgo Humbert#38ATP Paris · R327:6 7:5
Carlos Alcaraz
- 04/11/26WAlex Michelsen#35ATP Paris · R327:6 6:3
Upcoming matches
- Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz, · ATP Paris
- Juan Carlos Prado Angelo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli, · Challenger Costa do Sauipe
- Alice Tubello vs Bianca Andreescu, · WTA 125 Cali
- Casper Ruud vs Nuno Borges, · ATP Paris
- Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolína Muchová, · WTA WTA Tour Finals
- Mirra Andreeva vs Elina Svitolina, · WTA WTA Tour Finals